Udinese 2-5 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Udinese face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as Udinese welcome AS Roma to Bluenergy Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bluenergy Stadium, Udinese have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 2.40 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Udinese's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, AS Roma have the better historical record — 6 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Udinese.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Udinese winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AS Roma have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
AS Roma in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 47% versus AS Roma 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 47% | AS Roma 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.75 xG and AS Roma 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.597 / defence 1.074 | AS Roma attack 1.234 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.480. Udinese's attack strength of 0.597 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AS Roma have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Udinese games / 47 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 13% | Draw 21% | AS Roma 66%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 7.69 | Draw 4.76 | AS Roma 1.52. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 20% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 13% | Draw 21% | AS Roma 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 45% | xG Udinese 0.75 / AS Roma 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.597 / def 1.074 | AS Roma attack 1.234 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.96
AS Roma xG
45%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs AS Roma kick off?
Udinese vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs AS Roma?
Udinese 2 - 5 AS Roma.
Where is Udinese vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs AS Roma part of?
Udinese vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 13% chance of winning, AS Roma a 66% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Udinese and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and AS Roma?
Record (9 meetings): Udinese 2W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 6W.
What form are Udinese and AS Roma in?
Udinese (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. AS Roma (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Udinese's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
13%
7.43
21%
4.84
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.71
1.96
AS Roma xG
7.43
13%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
14%
7.11
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
2%
52.89
31%
3.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Udinese and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Udinese and 1.96 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Udinese come into this having played 47 games, going 15W 10D 22L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 2.00 PPG from 47 outings (29W 7D 11L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Udinese's home form reads 6W 5D 12L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.70 points per game from 23 outings (12W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.74 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 10D 22L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 29W 7D 11L in their last 47 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.00 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Udinese or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, AS Roma in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Sep 2022, when Udinese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
1
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, AS Roma have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Udinese 2-5 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 35%, AS Roma 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Udinese) and 44% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 44%; Udinese have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Udinese's recent matches and 39% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Udinese's recent games and 44% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and AS Roma tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Udinese 2-5 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 0.75 xG and AS Roma 1.96 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Roma outscored their 1.96 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.60 / defence 1.07 against AS Roma attack 1.23 / defence 0.83, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 13% | Draw 21% | AS Roma 66%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 47%, AS Roma 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.