Udinese vs AS Roma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Udinese face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as Udinese welcome AS Roma to Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udinese have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 2.60 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Udinese's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, AS Roma have the better historical record — 7 wins from 10 previous contests against 2 for Udinese.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Udinese winning.
It is worth noting that AS Roma have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
AS Roma in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 49% versus AS Roma 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 49% | AS Roma 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.78 xG and AS Roma 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.819 / defence 0.967 | AS Roma attack 1.154 / defence 0.657. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.657 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Udinese games / 45 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 21% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 51%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | AS Roma 1.96. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 20% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 21% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Udinese 0.78 / AS Roma 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.819 / def 0.967 | AS Roma attack 1.154 / def 0.657 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.38
AS Roma xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs AS Roma kick off?
Udinese vs AS Roma is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
Where is Udinese vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs AS Roma part of?
Udinese vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 21% chance of winning, AS Roma a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Udinese and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and AS Roma?
Record (10 meetings): Udinese 2W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 7W.
What form are Udinese and AS Roma in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Udinese's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
21%
4.76
28%
3.61
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.16
1.38
AS Roma xG
4.76
21%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
5%
18.99
24%
4.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Udinese and 1.38 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Udinese come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 9D 21L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 2.00 PPG from 45 outings (28W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Udinese's home form reads 6W 5D 11L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.73 points per game from 22 outings (12W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.67 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 9D 21L in their last 45 games (1.20 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 28W 6D 11L in their last 45 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.05 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Udinese or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, AS Roma in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Sep 2022, when Udinese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
1
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, AS Roma have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Udinese 1-0 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 36%, AS Roma 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Udinese) and 41% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 46%; Udinese have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Udinese's recent matches and 36% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Udinese's recent games and 41% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and AS Roma tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.