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Shock result as Udinese defy the odds to beat AS Roma 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Udinese beat AS Roma 1-0 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 0.80 xG and AS Roma 1.32 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.87 / defence 1.12 against AS Roma attack 1.01 / defence 0.73, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Udinese 22% | Draw 29% | AS Roma 49%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Udinese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 50%, AS Roma 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Udinese's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

AS Roma's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights