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Shock result as AS Roma defy the odds to beat Udinese 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Udinese 1-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.41 xG and AS Roma 1.13 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AS Roma outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against AS Roma attack 0.85 / defence 1.16, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Udinese 41% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 28%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual AS Roma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 42%, AS Roma 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Udinese's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

AS Roma's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights