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Poisson model rates Udinese at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Udinese welcome AS Roma to Bluenergy Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Bluenergy Stadium, Udinese have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AS Roma's away record: 0W 6D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Udinese) versus 1.40 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, AS Roma have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Udinese.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 0–3 with AS Roma winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AS Roma have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Udinese in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

AS Roma in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 58% versus AS Roma 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 42% | AS Roma 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.41 xG and AS Roma 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.886 / defence 1.014 | AS Roma attack 0.854 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.303. Data: 59 Udinese games / 59 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Udinese 41% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 28%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | AS Roma 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 40% | AS Roma 60%.

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