Torino 1-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Torino at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torino vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino to face Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Torino's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Torino are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino than their overall form suggests.
Monza (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Monza have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Torino against 0.70 for Monza. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Torino have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Monza in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Torino lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Torino winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Torino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 36% versus Monza 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Torino 36% | Monza 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.04 xG and Monza 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.862 / defence 0.827 | Monza attack 0.861 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.346. Data: 50 Torino games / 50 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 36% | Draw 32% | Monza 32%. Fair-value odds: Torino 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Monza 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Torino are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Torino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Torino 30% | Monza 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 36% | Draw 32% | Monza 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Torino 1.04 / Monza 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.862 / def 0.827 | Monza attack 0.861 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Torino (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Torino xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Monza xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Monza kick off?
Torino vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Monza?
Torino 1 - 1 Monza.
Where is Torino vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Monza part of?
Torino vs Monza is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 36% chance of winning, Monza a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Torino and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Monza?
Record (4 meetings): Torino 2W | Draws 2 | Monza 0W.
What form are Torino and Monza in?
Torino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Monza (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Torino vs Monza?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Torino's attack at 0.86x the league average against Monza's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.86x) against Torino's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
36%
2.75
32%
3.16
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Torino xG
Total xG
2.00
0.96
Monza xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Torino and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Torino and 0.96 for Monza, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Torino have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 17W 16D 17L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza's form line: 12W 17D 21L from 50 games, 1.06 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Torino against 1.06 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (10W 10D 4L).
On the road, Monza have gone 6W 8D 10L from 24 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Torino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Torino are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.98 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Torino have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Monza in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 17W 16D 17L in their last 50 games (1.34 PPG), while Monza have gone 12W 17D 21L in their last 50 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Monza away?
Torino's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.67 PPG; Monza away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Torino or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Monza in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Torino
3
Draws
0
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Torino have won 3, Monza have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Monza 0-2 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Monza?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Torino see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Monza see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Torino) and 33% (Monza) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Torino and 38% for Monza.
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 46% of games; Monza in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Torino's recent matches and 33% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Torino's recent games and 38% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Torino and Monza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino and Monza finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.04 xG and Monza 0.96 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.86 / defence 0.83 against Monza attack 0.86 / defence 0.89, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 36% | Draw 32% | Monza 32%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 36%, Monza 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.34 PPG, Monza 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.