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Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Torino 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Torino 1-2 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.24 xG and Bologna 1.88 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.87 / defence 1.25 against Bologna attack 1.24 / defence 1.15, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Torino 25% | Draw 23% | Bologna 52%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 39%, Bologna 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Torino's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Bologna's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Torino 1.15 PPG, Bologna 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights