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Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Udinese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Udinese 3-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 0.79 xG and Udinese 1.22 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sassuolo beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.77 / defence 1.05 against Udinese attack 1.02 / defence 0.90, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 23% | Draw 32% | Udinese 45%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Sassuolo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 50%, Udinese 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Udinese's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm. Udinese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights