🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Sassuolo defy the odds to beat Lazio 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Lazio 1-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 0.96 xG and Lazio 1.25 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lazio landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.74 / defence 1.20 against Lazio attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 28% | Draw 29% | Lazio 43%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sassuolo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 50%, Lazio 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Lazio's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sassuolo 2.05 PPG, Lazio 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights