Sassuolo vs Genoa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Genoa travel to to take on Sassuolo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.60 conceded. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 5W 1D 4L at — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sassuolo are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Genoa — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Genoa's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Sassuolo's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Genoa, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Sassuolo.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Genoa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Genoa have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Genoa trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 60% versus Genoa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 60% | Genoa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.78 xG and Genoa 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.206 / defence 1.468 | Genoa attack 0.755 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.502. Data: 48 Sassuolo games / 48 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 41% | Draw 22% | Genoa 36%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.44 | Draw 4.55 | Genoa 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Genoa (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 80% | Genoa 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 41% | Draw 22% | Genoa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Sassuolo 1.78 / Genoa 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.206 / def 1.468 | Genoa attack 0.755 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.502 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Genoa xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Genoa kick off?
Sassuolo vs Genoa is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 22 November 2026.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Genoa part of?
Sassuolo vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 41% chance of winning, Genoa a 36% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sassuolo and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Genoa?
Record (6 meetings): Sassuolo 0W | Draws 2 | Genoa 4W.
What form are Sassuolo and Genoa in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Genoa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sassuolo's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
41%
2.43
22%
4.45
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
3.44
1.66
Genoa xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
8%
12.84
6%
16.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.66 for Genoa, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sassuolo come into this having played 48 games, going 16W 9D 23L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.12 PPG from 48 outings (14W 12D 22L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sassuolo on 1.19 PPG, Genoa on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sassuolo's home form reads 11W 3D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (5W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sassuolo are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.06 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Genoa in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 16W 9D 23L in their last 48 games (1.19 PPG), while Genoa have gone 14W 12D 22L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Genoa away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.57 PPG; Genoa away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genoa have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sassuolo's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sassuolo
2
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Genoa?
From 6 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 0, Genoa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 61%, Genoa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Sassuolo) and 48% (Genoa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genoa in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Sassuolo's games and 56% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sassuolo's matches and 48% of Genoa's.
Do Sassuolo and Genoa tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Genoa in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.