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Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat Sassuolo 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genoa beat Sassuolo 1-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.19 xG and Genoa 1.17 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against Genoa attack 1.02 / defence 1.13, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 35% | Draw 30% | Genoa 34%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 49%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Genoa's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Genoa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights