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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fiorentina.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Fiorentina 3-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.29 xG and Fiorentina 1.07 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sassuolo beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.90 / defence 1.18 against Fiorentina attack 0.79 / defence 1.20, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 40% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 30%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 51%, Fiorentina 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Fiorentina's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights