Sassuolo vs Cagliari Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 47%, yet in-form Cagliari provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sassuolo vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cagliari travel to face Sassuolo in Serie A (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Sunday 21 March 2027 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
Sassuolo (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.70 conceded. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Sassuolo have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sassuolo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cagliari have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cagliari's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Cagliari are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Cagliari edge it 3 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Apr 2026, ended Sassuolo 2–1 Cagliari — a Sassuolo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sassuolo — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Cagliari — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 59% versus Cagliari 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 61% | Cagliari 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 2.18 xG and Cagliari 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.201 / defence 1.467 | Cagliari attack 0.841 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.449. Sassuolo's defence rating of 1.467 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cagliari's projected output up. Data: built from Sassuolo's last 49 games and Cagliari's last 49.
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 47% | Draw 20% | Cagliari 32%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.11 | Draw 4.89 | Cagliari 3.10. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (2.18 / 1.79) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cagliari (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sassuolo's last 10 home games and Cagliari's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sassuolo 80% (last 10 home games) | Cagliari 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, matchday 29 • Kick-off: Sunday 21 March 2027 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 47% | Draw 20% | Cagliari 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 74% (No 26%) | xG Sassuolo 2.18 / Cagliari 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.201 / def 1.467 | Cagliari attack 0.841 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Cagliari xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sassuolo vs Cagliari FAQs
What time does Sassuolo vs Cagliari kick off?
Sassuolo vs Cagliari is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 21 March 2027.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Cagliari part of?
Sassuolo vs Cagliari is a Serie A fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 47% chance of winning, Cagliari a 32% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Sassuolo and Cagliari will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sassuolo vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sassuolo's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.84x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from Sassuolo's last 49 games and Cagliari's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
47%
2.11
20%
4.89
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
3.97
1.79
Cagliari xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.82
Clean Sheet
17%
5.98
11%
8.84
Win to Nil
8%
12.63
4%
27.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sassuolo vs Cagliari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.79 for Cagliari, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Sassuolo have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 16W 9D 24L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Cagliari's form line: 16W 11D 22L from 49 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Sassuolo against 1.20 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sassuolo have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 24 home games (11W 3D 10L).
On the road, Cagliari have gone 7W 6D 11L from their last 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sassuolo are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.02 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
Sassuolo (Home) vs Cagliari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sassuolo
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Sassuolo vs Cagliari Form FAQs
What form are Sassuolo and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 16W 9D 24L in their last 49 games (1.16 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 16W 11D 22L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Cagliari away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.50 PPG; Cagliari away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Sassuolo have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
1
Draws
3
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Sassuolo vs Cagliari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Cagliari?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sassuolo have won 2, Cagliari have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Cagliari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Sassuolo 2-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 58%, Cagliari 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Sassuolo and 67% for Cagliari. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sassuolo vs Cagliari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sassuolo and Cagliari matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Sassuolo's games and 62% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sassuolo and Cagliari matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sassuolo's matches and 67% of Cagliari's.
Do Sassuolo and Cagliari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 71% of Cagliari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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