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Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Cagliari 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Cagliari 2-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.36 xG and Cagliari 1.26 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.85 / defence 1.20 against Cagliari attack 0.89 / defence 1.27, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 39% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 35%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 52%, Cagliari 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Cagliari's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights