Sassuolo vs AS Roma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sassuolo face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 25 as Sassuolo welcome AS Roma to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sassuolo stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 6W 1D 3L at — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sassuolo are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AS Roma are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, AS Roma have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Sassuolo.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with AS Roma winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AS Roma have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
AS Roma trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 60% versus AS Roma 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 60% | AS Roma 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.75 xG and AS Roma 2.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.215 / defence 1.337 | AS Roma attack 1.472 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.464. AS Roma have an above-average attack strength of 1.472 — the away xG of 2.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Sassuolo games / 48 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 22% | Draw 17% | AS Roma 61%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 4.55 | Draw 5.88 | AS Roma 1.64. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (61%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS probability 78% | Total xG 4.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 2.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.63 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 84% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 78% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 80% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 22% | Draw 17% | AS Roma 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% | BTTS 78% | xG Sassuolo 1.75 / AS Roma 2.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.215 / def 1.337 | AS Roma attack 1.472 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
2.88
AS Roma xG
78%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs AS Roma kick off?
Sassuolo vs AS Roma is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 February 2027.
What competition is Sassuolo vs AS Roma part of?
Sassuolo vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 22% chance of winning, AS Roma a 61% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both Sassuolo and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and AS Roma?
Record (8 meetings): Sassuolo 1W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 5W.
What form are Sassuolo and AS Roma in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sassuolo's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 2.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 7.1%. Close behind: 1-3 (6.8%), 2-2 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
22%
4.58
17%
5.92
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
6.8%
Away win
2 – 2
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
4.63
2.88
AS Roma xG
4.58
22%
Home win
5.92
17%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
68%
Over 3.5
1.47
32%
Under 3.5
3.12
49%
Over 4.5
2.04
51%
Under 4.5
1.96
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.28
22%
BTTS No
4.53
Clean Sheet
6%
17.81
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
1%
81.57
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Sassuolo and 2.88 for AS Roma, a combined total of 4.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sassuolo come into this having played 47 games, going 16W 9D 22L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 2.00 PPG from 47 outings (29W 7D 11L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sassuolo's home form reads 11W 3D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.70 points per game from 23 outings (12W 3D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Sassuolo are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.83 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 16W 9D 22L in their last 47 games (1.21 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 29W 7D 11L in their last 47 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.57 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, AS Roma in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sassuolo and AS Roma runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Sassuolo's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sassuolo
2
Draws
5
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 1, AS Roma have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 56%, AS Roma 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Sassuolo) and 48% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 39%; Sassuolo have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 44% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Sassuolo's recent games and 48% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and AS Roma tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.