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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Sassuolo 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Sassuolo 0-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 0.92 xG and AS Roma 1.19 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sassuolo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.01 / defence 1.07 against AS Roma attack 1.05 / defence 0.76, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 26% | Draw 35% | AS Roma 40%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 49%, AS Roma 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

AS Roma's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sassuolo 2.04 PPG, AS Roma 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights