Salernitana 2-2 Empoli – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Salernitana at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salernitana vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salernitana host Empoli at Stadio Arechi in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 5 September 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Salernitana have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Salernitana have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Salernitana have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Arechi — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Empoli stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Salernitana at 1.40 PPG versus Empoli's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Salernitana, 1 for Empoli and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Salernitana in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Empoli in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 50% versus Empoli 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 55% | Empoli 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.38 xG and Empoli 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 1.032 / defence 1.049 | Empoli attack 0.837 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.052. Data: 42 Salernitana games / 42 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 44% | Draw 35% | Empoli 21%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.27 | Draw 2.86 | Empoli 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salernitana are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salernitana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 60% | Empoli 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Monday 5 Sep 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 44% | Draw 35% | Empoli 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Salernitana 1.38 / Empoli 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 1.032 / def 1.049 | Empoli attack 0.837 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Empoli xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Empoli kick off?
Salernitana vs Empoli kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 5 September 2022 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Empoli?
Salernitana 2 - 2 Empoli.
Where is Salernitana vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Empoli part of?
Salernitana vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 44% chance of winning, Empoli a 21% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Salernitana and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Empoli?
Record (2 meetings): Salernitana 0W | Draws 1 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Salernitana and Empoli in?
Salernitana (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Empoli (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 1.03x the league average against Empoli's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
44%
2.29
35%
2.85
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.30
0.92
Empoli xG
2.29
44%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
5%
18.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Salernitana and 0.92 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Salernitana have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 8W 12D 22L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Salernitana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Empoli's form line: 10W 14D 18L from 42 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salernitana on 0.86 PPG, Empoli on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Salernitana have posted 0.86 PPG from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 6W 7D 8L from 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Salernitana are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.24 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Empoli in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 8W 12D 22L in their last 42 games (0.86 PPG), while Empoli have gone 10W 14D 18L in their last 42 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Empoli away?
Empoli's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.86 PPG; Empoli away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salernitana and Empoli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Empoli go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Salernitana's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Salernitana
2
Draws
4
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 0, Empoli have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when Salernitana 1-3 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 43%, Empoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Salernitana) and 33% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 48% of games; Empoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Salernitana's recent matches and 48% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Salernitana's recent games and 33% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Empoli tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Empoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salernitana and Empoli share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana and Empoli finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.38 xG and Empoli 0.92 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Empoli outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 1.03 / defence 1.05 against Empoli attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 44% | Draw 35% | Empoli 21%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 55%, Empoli 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salernitana 0.86 PPG, Empoli 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.