Fiorentina 1-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Juventus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fiorentina and Juventus meet at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fiorentina's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fiorentina at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Juventus (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juventus have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juventus away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Juventus arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Fiorentina 1W, Juventus 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Fiorentina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 50% versus Juventus 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 57% | Juventus 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.24 xG and Juventus 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.040 / defence 0.902 | Juventus attack 0.960 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.061. Data: 42 Fiorentina games / 42 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 40% | Draw 37% | Juventus 23%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.50 | Draw 2.70 | Juventus 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Juventus (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 20% | Juventus 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 40% | Draw 37% | Juventus 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Fiorentina 1.24 / Juventus 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.040 / def 0.902 | Juventus attack 0.960 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Juventus xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Juventus kick off?
Fiorentina vs Juventus kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Fiorentina 1 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Fiorentina vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Juventus part of?
Fiorentina vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 40% chance of winning, Juventus a 23% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Fiorentina and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Juventus?
Record (2 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 0 | Juventus 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Juventus in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Juventus (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.04) and Juventus's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (0.96x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
40%
2.52
37%
2.71
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.16
0.92
Juventus xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
7%
14.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.92 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fiorentina come into this having played 42 games, going 20W 7D 15L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Juventus sit at 1.86 PPG from 42 outings (22W 12D 8L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Juventus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.86 for Juventus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fiorentina's home form reads 13W 3D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Juventus have taken 1.80 points per game from 20 outings (10W 6D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.50 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Early Season
Juventus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Juventus in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 20W 7D 15L in their last 42 games (1.60 PPG), while Juventus have gone 22W 12D 8L in their last 42 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Juventus away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.10 PPG; Juventus away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Juventus in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 3-0 on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
3
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, Juventus have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Juventus 0-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 35%, Juventus 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Fiorentina) and 50% (Juventus). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 65% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Fiorentina's matches and 50% of Juventus's.
Do Fiorentina and Juventus tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Juventus in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and Juventus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 5, as Fiorentina and Juventus drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.24 xG and Juventus 0.92 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Juventus attack 0.96 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 40% | Draw 37% | Juventus 23%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 57%, Juventus 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventus's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.60 PPG, Juventus 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.