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Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Cremonese 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pisa beat Cremonese 1-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.58 xG and Cremonese 0.86 xG, a combined 1.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.47 / defence 0.83 against Cremonese attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 22% | Draw 39% | Cremonese 39%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Pisa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 43% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 52%, Cremonese 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Cremonese's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pisa 1.67 PPG, Cremonese 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights