Pisa 3-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cagliari at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pisa host Cagliari at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie A (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pisa stand at 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Pisa at home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cagliari — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cagliari away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cagliari are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Pisa, 0 for Cagliari and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2025, ended Pisa 2–2 Cagliari — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cagliari in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 50% versus Cagliari 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 50% | Cagliari 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.78 xG and Cagliari 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.542 / defence 1.168 | Cagliari attack 0.907 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.177. Pisa's attack rating of 0.542 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Pisa's last 28 games and Cagliari's last 66.
Result probabilities: Pisa 23% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 47%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 4.31 | Draw 3.40 | Cagliari 2.11. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pisa's last 10 home games and Cagliari's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 30% (last 10 home games) | Cagliari 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, matchday 29 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 23% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Pisa 0.78 / Cagliari 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.542 / def 1.168 | Cagliari attack 0.907 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Cagliari xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pisa vs Cagliari FAQs
What time does Pisa vs Cagliari kick off?
Pisa vs Cagliari kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Cagliari?
Pisa 3 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Pisa vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Cagliari part of?
Pisa vs Cagliari is a Serie A fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 23% chance of winning, Cagliari a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Pisa and Cagliari will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Pisa vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.54) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pisa's last 28 games and Cagliari's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
23%
4.31
29%
3.40
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.03
1.25
Cagliari xG
4.31
23%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
7%
15.02
22%
4.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 16.4 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pisa vs Cagliari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Pisa and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Pisa and 1.25 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pisa's recent record stands at 23W 20D 23L from 66 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 16W 18D 32L across 66 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.35 PPG, Cagliari on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 14W 8D 11L from their last 33 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 6W 10D 17L across their last 33 away games, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.06 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
Pisa (Home) vs Cagliari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pisa
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Pisa vs Cagliari Form FAQs
What form are Pisa and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 23W 20D 23L in their last 66 games (1.35 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 16W 18D 32L in their last 66 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Cagliari away?
Pisa's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.52 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pisa
3
Draws
0
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Pisa vs Cagliari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cagliari?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Pisa have won 1, Cagliari have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Cagliari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Pisa 3-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Cagliari?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 46%, Cagliari 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Pisa) and 48% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Pisa have failed to score in 36% of games; Cagliari in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pisa vs Cagliari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pisa and Cagliari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pisa's recent matches and 58% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pisa and Cagliari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Pisa's recent games and 48% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Cagliari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Pisa's recent matches and 76% of Cagliari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Cagliari 3-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.78 xG and Cagliari 1.25 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.54 / defence 1.17 against Cagliari attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 23% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 47%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Pisa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 50%, Cagliari 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.35 PPG, Cagliari 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Cagliari (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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