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Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Pisa 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Pisa 0-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.83 xG and Bologna 1.82 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pisa fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Bologna landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.60 / defence 1.21 against Bologna attack 1.26 / defence 1.11, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 17% | Draw 23% | Bologna 61%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 50%, Bologna 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bologna's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pisa 1.39 PPG, Bologna 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights