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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Pisa 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Pisa 0-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.96 xG and AS Roma 1.29 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pisa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against AS Roma attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 25% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 42%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 54%, AS Roma 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

AS Roma's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pisa 1.92 PPG, AS Roma 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights