Pisa 0-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AS Roma make the trip to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to face Pisa in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 August 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Pisa (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 56% versus AS Roma 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 54% | AS Roma 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.96 xG and AS Roma 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | AS Roma attack 1.012 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.111. Data: 1 Pisa games / 39 AS Roma games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pisa 25% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 42%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | AS Roma 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 70% | AS Roma 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 25% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Pisa 0.96 / AS Roma 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | AS Roma attack 1.012 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.29
AS Roma xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs AS Roma kick off?
Pisa vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs AS Roma?
Pisa 0 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Pisa vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs AS Roma part of?
Pisa vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 25% chance of winning, AS Roma a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pisa and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and AS Roma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and AS Roma in?
Pisa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. AS Roma (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.86) and AS Roma's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.01x) against Pisa's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
25%
3.95
33%
3.05
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.25
1.29
AS Roma xG
3.95
25%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
7%
14.40
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.6 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Pisa and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Pisa and 1.29 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 22W 9D 8L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma's form line: 21W 9D 9L from 39 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.92 PPG for Pisa against 1.85 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pisa have posted 2.26 PPG from 19 outings (13W 4D 2L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 7W 7D 5L from 19 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.46 scored and 0.90 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: AS Roma in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 22W 9D 8L in their last 39 games (1.92 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 21W 9D 9L in their last 39 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or AS Roma away?
Pisa's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.26 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Pisa or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, AS Roma in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pisa
0
Draws
2
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and AS Roma?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 0, AS Roma have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when AS Roma 3-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 63%, AS Roma 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Pisa) and 26% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; AS Roma in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Pisa's games and 47% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Pisa's recent games and 26% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and AS Roma tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Pisa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Pisa 0-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.96 xG and AS Roma 1.29 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pisa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against AS Roma attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 25% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 42%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 54%, AS Roma 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Roma's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.92 PPG, AS Roma 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.