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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AC Milan edge out Pisa 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Milan beat Pisa 1-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.48 xG and AC Milan 2.00 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.54 / defence 1.22 against AC Milan attack 1.36 / defence 0.72, drawn from 24/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 8% | Draw 19% | AC Milan 73%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 49%, AC Milan 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

AC Milan's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights