Parma 1-0 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Sassuolo travel to Stadio Ennio Tardini to take on Parma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 May 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Parma have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Ennio Tardini — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sassuolo stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sassuolo's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Parma 0.90 PPG, Sassuolo 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Parma, 0 for Sassuolo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sassuolo in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 53% versus Sassuolo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 43% | Sassuolo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.10 xG and Sassuolo 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.829 / defence 1.172 | Sassuolo attack 0.861 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.170. Data: 75 Parma games / 37 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 34% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 38%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Sassuolo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Parma 50% | Sassuolo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 34% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Parma 1.10 / Sassuolo 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.829 / def 1.172 | Sassuolo attack 0.861 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Sassuolo xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Sassuolo kick off?
Parma vs Sassuolo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Sassuolo?
Parma 1 - 0 Sassuolo.
Where is Parma vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Sassuolo part of?
Parma vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 34% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Parma and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Sassuolo?
Record (1 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 1 | Sassuolo 0W.
What form are Parma and Sassuolo in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.83) and Sassuolo's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
34%
2.96
29%
3.50
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Parma xG
Total xG
2.28
1.18
Sassuolo xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
10%
9.64
13%
8.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Parma and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Parma and 1.18 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Parma have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 17W 27D 31L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Sassuolo's form line: 39W 14D 22L from 75 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Sassuolo are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Parma.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.05 PPG from 37 outings (9W 12D 16L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 16W 10D 11L from 37 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.65 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Sassuolo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 17W 27D 31L in their last 75 games (1.04 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 39W 14D 22L in their last 75 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Sassuolo away?
Sassuolo's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.05 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Parma or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Sassuolo runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Parma
1
Draws
0
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Sassuolo?
From 2 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Sassuolo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Parma 1-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Sassuolo?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 60%, Sassuolo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Parma) and 54% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Parma's games and 62% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Parma's recent games and 54% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat Sassuolo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Sassuolo 1-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.10 xG and Sassuolo 1.18 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sassuolo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Sassuolo attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 34% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 38%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 43%, Sassuolo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Sassuolo's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Parma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.51 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.