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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Parma and Napoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 32, as Parma and Napoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.85 xG and Napoli 1.50 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.73 / defence 1.18 against Napoli attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Parma 21% | Draw 26% | Napoli 52%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 45%, Napoli 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Parma's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Napoli's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights