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Stalemate at Parma's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 37, as Parma and Napoli drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.89 xG and Napoli 1.41 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Parma fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Napoli landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Napoli attack 1.07 / defence 0.78, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Parma 23% | Draw 29% | Napoli 49%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 53%, Napoli 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Parma's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Napoli's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Parma 1.46 PPG, Napoli 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights