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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Juventus run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Parma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventus beat Parma 1-4 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.67 xG and Juventus 1.07 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Juventus outscored their 1.07 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.67 / defence 0.95 against Juventus attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Parma 23% | Draw 33% | Juventus 45%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 47%, Juventus 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Parma's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Juventus's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Parma (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juventus (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights