🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat Juventus 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Parma beat Juventus 1-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.26 xG and Juventus 1.56 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Juventus landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.05 / defence 1.32 against Juventus attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Parma 30% | Draw 27% | Juventus 44%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 53%, Juventus 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Parma's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Juventus's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Parma 1.49 PPG, Juventus 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights