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Parma and Inter share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 31, as Parma and Inter drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.92 xG and Inter 2.12 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.98 / defence 1.29 against Inter attack 1.40 / defence 0.73, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Parma 14% | Draw 22% | Inter 64%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 53%, Inter 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Parma's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Inter's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inter (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights