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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Hellas Verona 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Parma beat Hellas Verona 2-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.13 xG and Hellas Verona 0.97 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.70 / defence 1.09 against Hellas Verona attack 0.72 / defence 1.30, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Parma 39% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 31%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 47%, Hellas Verona 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Parma's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Parma 1.00 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights