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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Parma 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hellas Verona beat Parma 2-3 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.81 xG and Hellas Verona 1.27 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hellas Verona outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.03 / defence 1.22 against Hellas Verona attack 0.80 / defence 1.30, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Parma 50% | Draw 23% | Hellas Verona 27%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Hellas Verona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 55%, Hellas Verona 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Parma's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Parma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights