Parma 0-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Parma and Genoa meet at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 January 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Parma's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Ennio Tardini this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season.
Genoa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Parma 1W, Genoa 2W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 57% versus Genoa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 47% | Genoa 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.09 xG and Genoa 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.743 / defence 1.056 | Genoa attack 1.154 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.158. Parma's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Parma games / 58 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 29% | Draw 27% | Genoa 44%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Genoa 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 40% | Genoa 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 29% | Draw 27% | Genoa 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Parma 1.09 / Genoa 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.743 / def 1.056 | Genoa attack 1.154 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Genoa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Genoa xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Genoa kick off?
Parma vs Genoa kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Genoa?
Parma 0 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Parma vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Genoa part of?
Parma vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 29% chance of winning, Genoa a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Parma and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Genoa?
Record (5 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 2 | Genoa 2W.
What form are Parma and Genoa in?
Parma (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Genoa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Parma's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (1.15x) against Parma's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
29%
3.42
27%
3.77
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Parma xG
Total xG
2.50
1.41
Genoa xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
7%
14.04
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Parma and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Parma and 1.41 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Parma come into this having played 58 games, going 12W 22D 24L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.07 PPG from 58 outings (14W 20D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Parma against 1.07 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Parma's home form reads 7W 8D 13L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (7W 9D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Parma are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.02 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Genoa in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 12W 22D 24L in their last 58 games (1.00 PPG), while Genoa have gone 14W 20D 24L in their last 58 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.04 PPG; Genoa away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Parma
3
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Genoa?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Genoa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Parma 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 57%, Genoa 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Parma) and 50% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 32% of games; Genoa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Parma's games and 61% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Parma's recent games and 50% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Genoa tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Genoa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Parma's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 21, as Parma and Genoa drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.09 xG and Genoa 1.41 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Parma fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.74 / defence 1.06 against Genoa attack 1.15 / defence 1.25, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 29% | Draw 27% | Genoa 44%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 47%, Genoa 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genoa's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.00 PPG, Genoa 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.