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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Fiorentina 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Parma beat Fiorentina 1-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.20 xG and Fiorentina 1.04 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.76 / defence 1.16 against Fiorentina attack 0.81 / defence 1.28, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Parma 40% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 31%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 49%, Fiorentina 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Parma's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Fiorentina's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Parma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights