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Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Parma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese beat Parma 0-2 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.26 xG and Cremonese 0.83 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Parma fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cremonese outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against Cremonese attack 0.64 / defence 1.28, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Parma 46% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 25%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Cremonese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 46%, Cremonese 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Parma's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cremonese's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Parma 1.04 PPG, Cremonese 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights