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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Parma and Cagliari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 27, as Parma and Cagliari drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.13 xG and Cagliari 1.23 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.78 / defence 1.12 against Cagliari attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Parma 34% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 38%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 47%, Cagliari 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Parma's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Cagliari's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Parma 1.06 PPG, Cagliari 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights