Parma vs Bologna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Bologna at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bologna — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Parma, 1 for Bologna and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Parma trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Bologna trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 40% versus Bologna 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 34% | Bologna 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.77 xG and Bologna 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.626 / defence 0.962 | Bologna attack 1.132 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.464. Parma's attack strength of 0.626 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bologna's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Parma games / 48 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 18% | Draw 25% | Bologna 57%. Fair-value odds: Parma 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | Bologna 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Parma 40% | Bologna 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 18% | Draw 25% | Bologna 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Parma 0.77 / Bologna 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.626 / def 0.962 | Bologna attack 1.132 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Bologna (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Bologna xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Bologna kick off?
Parma vs Bologna is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Where is Parma vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Bologna part of?
Parma vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 18% chance of winning, Bologna a 57% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Parma and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Bologna?
Record (4 meetings): Parma 2W | Draws 1 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Parma and Bologna in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Parma's attack at 0.63x the league average against Bologna's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
18%
5.59
25%
4.00
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Parma xG
Total xG
2.36
1.59
Bologna xG
5.59
18%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
46%
2.15
Win to Nil
4%
27.49
27%
3.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 15.1 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Parma and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Parma and 1.59 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Bologna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 14D 21L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.49 PPG from 47 outings (20W 10D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Parma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Parma's home form reads 6W 7D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.87 points per game from 23 outings (13W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.34 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Bologna in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 12W 14D 21L in their last 47 games (1.06 PPG), while Bologna have gone 20W 10D 17L in their last 47 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.09 PPG; Bologna away: 1.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Bologna runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
1
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Bologna?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Bologna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bologna 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Bologna?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 44%, Bologna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Parma) and 52% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Parma's recent matches and 56% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Parma's recent games and 52% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Bologna tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Bologna in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.