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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Parma 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Parma 2-3 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.97 xG and AS Roma 1.37 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Roma outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.74 / defence 1.10 against AS Roma attack 1.14 / defence 1.07, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Parma 26% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 46%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 42%, AS Roma 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Parma's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

AS Roma's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Parma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights