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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Venezia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Venezia 1-0 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.61 xG and Venezia 0.89 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Venezia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 0.90 / defence 0.85 against Venezia attack 0.78 / defence 1.34, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 54% | Draw 25% | Venezia 21%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 53%, Venezia 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Venezia's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Napoli 1.65 PPG, Venezia 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Napoli win broke the near-deadlock. Napoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights