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Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Torino 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Torino 2-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 2.00 xG and Torino 0.91 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.18 / defence 0.91 against Torino attack 0.84 / defence 1.35, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 63% | Draw 21% | Torino 16%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 49%, Torino 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Torino's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights