🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Napoli cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Torino.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Torino 2-0 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.49 xG and Torino 0.87 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Torino landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.20 / defence 0.77 against Torino attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 51% | Draw 27% | Torino 22%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 52%, Torino 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Torino's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Napoli 1.75 PPG, Torino 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Napoli win broke the near-deadlock. Napoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights