🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Lecce 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Lecce 2-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.44 xG and Lecce 0.86 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.15 / defence 0.93 against Lecce attack 0.79 / defence 0.97, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 51% | Draw 27% | Lecce 22%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 50%, Lecce 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Lecce's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights