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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Napoli and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli and Hellas Verona finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.99 xG and Hellas Verona 0.74 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hellas Verona outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.33 / defence 0.85 against Hellas Verona attack 0.77 / defence 1.28, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 67% | Draw 20% | Hellas Verona 13%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 44%, Hellas Verona 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Napoli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights