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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Fiorentina 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Fiorentina 2-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.21 xG and Fiorentina 0.92 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.00 / defence 0.77 against Fiorentina attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 40% | Draw 34% | Fiorentina 26%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 52%, Fiorentina 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Fiorentina's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Napoli 1.69 PPG, Fiorentina 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Napoli win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights