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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Napoli run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Empoli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Empoli 3-0 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.75 xG and Empoli 0.84 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Napoli beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Empoli landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.10 / defence 0.81 against Empoli attack 0.90 / defence 1.27, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 57% | Draw 26% | Empoli 16%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 52%, Empoli 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Empoli's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights