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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Napoli 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Napoli 2-3 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.50 xG and Bologna 1.13 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.22 / defence 0.92 against Bologna attack 1.10 / defence 0.99, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 45% | Draw 26% | Bologna 28%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 48%, Bologna 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Bologna's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.52. Form was overturned, with Bologna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Napoli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights