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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Napoli cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Atalanta.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Atalanta 3-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.21 xG and Atalanta 0.95 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Napoli beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.20 / defence 0.85 against Atalanta attack 1.05 / defence 0.86, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 40% | Draw 33% | Atalanta 27%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 45%, Atalanta 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Atalanta's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Napoli 2.12 PPG, Atalanta 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Napoli win broke the near-deadlock. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights