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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Napoli and AS Roma share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 25, as Napoli and AS Roma drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.08 xG and AS Roma 0.88 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Napoli beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Roma outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.15 / defence 0.80 against AS Roma attack 0.90 / defence 0.76, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 39% | Draw 32% | AS Roma 29%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 47%, AS Roma 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

AS Roma's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Napoli 2.11 PPG, AS Roma 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Napoli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights