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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Monza and Parma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Monza and Parma drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.11 xG and Parma 1.00 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.68 / defence 1.08 against Parma attack 0.74 / defence 1.26, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monza 36% | Draw 34% | Parma 30%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 44%, Parma 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monza's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Parma's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights