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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Empoli cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Monza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Empoli beat Monza 1-3 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.11 xG and Empoli 1.31 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Empoli outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.69 / defence 1.31 against Empoli attack 0.87 / defence 1.34, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monza 31% | Draw 29% | Empoli 40%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 45%, Empoli 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monza's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Empoli's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Monza 0.85 PPG, Empoli 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights